Today's market pretty much played out like we suspected in yesterday's post. We got the FED rate cut, they signaled that they are going to stop; the market jump and then started selling off. I believe the sell off was not because of any disappointment in the FED move, but rather just the normal cycle of working off the over bought position of the market.
Now our fast momentum has plunged and is reaching for oversold status. But our moderate momentum is still at a high state, particularly if you just look at the major indexes. This worries me because its over due to drop and get recharged. So I think we have little more bleed off to happen and then a nice move to the long side. Exactly when that happens, I can't say, but it should play out over the next few days.
When you check out our Top 25 lists, you will see that there are some sectors and stocks that we think that getting ready to move now so check that out.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
TradeWinds for April 29th
I'm back after a day off from blogging. This blogging business is tough. For those that have not tried it, you would be surprised how tough it is. I would love to hear from any you reading this blog of what you like or what you would like to see more of less of. Feel free to jump and give me some feedback.
Lets see what Miss Market is up to. Its no surprise that the week has been kinda of boring as we come up to the FED MEETING (cue the scary music). You can be sure that about 2:15 tomorrow afternoon the market will go nuts. It will swing down and then up or up and then down. It really won't be until the next couple of days that we really know how she feels about the Fed's decision tomorrow.
Conventional wisdom is that the Fed with cut 25 basis points tomorrow. The debate is whether they signal they are done cutting or not. I haven't clue of macro economics yada yada, I can only look at my momentum numbers as my tea leaves and try and find some meaning in them. And true to a good market forecaster, I am going to tell you the picture is mixed. Our moderate momentum indicator is still a touch overbought. Our fast momentum has shed its over bought excess and our slow momentum is cruising in nice strong positive TradeWinds. A mixed picture indeed.
Looking at sectors, we have said for sometime that there is a massive rotation out of commodities and signs of a strengthening dollar. This suggests that rate cutting is at an end. So here is my best guess at what happens tomorrow and the next couple of days. Fed either buts .25 or even surprises by not cutting. If it cuts it says it will now pause. The market will either tank immediately of wait a day, but this down move is to bleed off the over bought state on the moderate momentum. The down move is short lived and then there is sustained move back up due to a way over sold short term momentum indicator and the fact that Miss Market is sailing in positive TradeWinds to begin with. Bottom line, I don't know exactly the scenario for tomorrow, but in the next few days we will be sailing in calm blue seas again.
Now check out our TradeWinds Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box results for today.
Lets see what Miss Market is up to. Its no surprise that the week has been kinda of boring as we come up to the FED MEETING (cue the scary music). You can be sure that about 2:15 tomorrow afternoon the market will go nuts. It will swing down and then up or up and then down. It really won't be until the next couple of days that we really know how she feels about the Fed's decision tomorrow.
Conventional wisdom is that the Fed with cut 25 basis points tomorrow. The debate is whether they signal they are done cutting or not. I haven't clue of macro economics yada yada, I can only look at my momentum numbers as my tea leaves and try and find some meaning in them. And true to a good market forecaster, I am going to tell you the picture is mixed. Our moderate momentum indicator is still a touch overbought. Our fast momentum has shed its over bought excess and our slow momentum is cruising in nice strong positive TradeWinds. A mixed picture indeed.
Looking at sectors, we have said for sometime that there is a massive rotation out of commodities and signs of a strengthening dollar. This suggests that rate cutting is at an end. So here is my best guess at what happens tomorrow and the next couple of days. Fed either buts .25 or even surprises by not cutting. If it cuts it says it will now pause. The market will either tank immediately of wait a day, but this down move is to bleed off the over bought state on the moderate momentum. The down move is short lived and then there is sustained move back up due to a way over sold short term momentum indicator and the fact that Miss Market is sailing in positive TradeWinds to begin with. Bottom line, I don't know exactly the scenario for tomorrow, but in the next few days we will be sailing in calm blue seas again.
Now check out our TradeWinds Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box results for today.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
TradeWinds for April 25th
Little Miss Market made us sweat a little bit on Friday. The late day surge really saved the week and our momentum numbers.
I was worried that the SPY was not going to be able to claim 139 yet again and set us up for nervous time to start next week. But in the end it pushed through and rested at 139.6 to end the day. Breadth was decent all day and we ended up with 66 winners out of the 85 equities we track. And by the way, I have found that any day where have doubts as to where the after session of the market is going to go, look at the breadth numbers. Almost invariably, the session will follow the leader in winners or losers.
Our momentum charts are telling us that we are set for another run high next week as our Fast Momentum indicator has recharged and is heading higher again. There is one warning sign that I see. Our moderate momentum indicator dropped only a tad and took a turn up on Friday. I would have liked to see more recharge on that indicator than we got, so the next push up may be a short one until we have to consolidate again.
Nearly all boats are rising right now, with only the precious metals and healthcare sectors lagging.
We promised a new feature this weekend and you will find it on our Top 25 Lists page, so check it out.
I was worried that the SPY was not going to be able to claim 139 yet again and set us up for nervous time to start next week. But in the end it pushed through and rested at 139.6 to end the day. Breadth was decent all day and we ended up with 66 winners out of the 85 equities we track. And by the way, I have found that any day where have doubts as to where the after session of the market is going to go, look at the breadth numbers. Almost invariably, the session will follow the leader in winners or losers.
Our momentum charts are telling us that we are set for another run high next week as our Fast Momentum indicator has recharged and is heading higher again. There is one warning sign that I see. Our moderate momentum indicator dropped only a tad and took a turn up on Friday. I would have liked to see more recharge on that indicator than we got, so the next push up may be a short one until we have to consolidate again.
Nearly all boats are rising right now, with only the precious metals and healthcare sectors lagging.
We promised a new feature this weekend and you will find it on our Top 25 Lists page, so check it out.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
TradeWinds for April 24th
Today was a most curious day, Miss Market. If I am correct, I think we are about to see a big rotational shift out of commodities and back to tech, financials and growth.
First, let me eat some crow. I said over the last few days to keep an eye on the precious metals as they just may be ready to bounce back. NOT! Precious metals are done for now as far as trends go - now if Dubya decides to bomb Iran or Syria, that another question. If you were gutsy, you could short them, but I wouldn't until we have a new president in place.
Joining the metals as fading sectors is bonds and I think the Euro may not be far behind. Yes, we may have seen the bottom for the dollar. That would also mean a top for oil. I am basing these judgments based on the strength of the down trend in metals and the growing down trend for th Euro. Lets watch what happens over the next few weeks.
Today's actions was rewarding to the longs, but disappointing in how the market faded into the close. I thought for sure this would be the day that SPY would close over 139, but not to be, which means it remains the only major index that has not cracked it nearest major resistance.
Our momentum indicators are in good shape for the long side. Fast momentum is flattening its down move getting ready for the next cycle up. Moderate momentum is shedding some of its over bought state and slow momentum is flat lining in Positive TradeWinds territory.
For more information on specific ETFs and Stocks check out our Top 25 Lists and TradeWinds Black Box.
Also, check in over the weekend as we will be introducing a new feature.
First, let me eat some crow. I said over the last few days to keep an eye on the precious metals as they just may be ready to bounce back. NOT! Precious metals are done for now as far as trends go - now if Dubya decides to bomb Iran or Syria, that another question. If you were gutsy, you could short them, but I wouldn't until we have a new president in place.
Joining the metals as fading sectors is bonds and I think the Euro may not be far behind. Yes, we may have seen the bottom for the dollar. That would also mean a top for oil. I am basing these judgments based on the strength of the down trend in metals and the growing down trend for th Euro. Lets watch what happens over the next few weeks.
Today's actions was rewarding to the longs, but disappointing in how the market faded into the close. I thought for sure this would be the day that SPY would close over 139, but not to be, which means it remains the only major index that has not cracked it nearest major resistance.
Our momentum indicators are in good shape for the long side. Fast momentum is flattening its down move getting ready for the next cycle up. Moderate momentum is shedding some of its over bought state and slow momentum is flat lining in Positive TradeWinds territory.
For more information on specific ETFs and Stocks check out our Top 25 Lists and TradeWinds Black Box.
Also, check in over the weekend as we will be introducing a new feature.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
TradeWinds for April 23rd
To the regular readers, I apologize for missing a post last night. Somedays, time just gets away, and in addition I was checking in on the happenings in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, our friend Miss Market has continued another nice consolidation pattern.
Our charts are almost identical to where we were about a week ago during the last consolidation. Our Fast Momentum is heading down as it works off it short term over bought status and will soon be ready for some buying. The Moderate Momentum is tending down a touch, but it never really got too frothy on the buy side. Our all important Slow Momentum is leveling off but still trending up, and most importantly it is solidly in the positive TradeWinds zone at around 11, where +5 is consider positive. All in all its a good set-up.
Let us not forget that we are still in the middle of earnings reporting, so any day the market or a particular sector or stock can get temporarily whacked by one bad report. So keep an eye to the headlines, but also be watching to buy dips.
Of course, we would like you to check out our Top 25 Lists and TradeWinds Black Box for some of you trading ideas.
Our charts are almost identical to where we were about a week ago during the last consolidation. Our Fast Momentum is heading down as it works off it short term over bought status and will soon be ready for some buying. The Moderate Momentum is tending down a touch, but it never really got too frothy on the buy side. Our all important Slow Momentum is leveling off but still trending up, and most importantly it is solidly in the positive TradeWinds zone at around 11, where +5 is consider positive. All in all its a good set-up.
Let us not forget that we are still in the middle of earnings reporting, so any day the market or a particular sector or stock can get temporarily whacked by one bad report. So keep an eye to the headlines, but also be watching to buy dips.
Of course, we would like you to check out our Top 25 Lists and TradeWinds Black Box for some of you trading ideas.
Monday, April 21, 2008
TradeWinds for April 21st
Today was a beautiful spring day to go take a dip. Buy the dip in the market that is. I hate to be redundant, but that is the mode we are in right now.
We saw very nice consolidation today and a nice rally into the close. Now we are hitting another short term over bought spot on the Fast Momentum indicator. You can see on the chart how its topping out. That is good. It means that it needs to head back down to regain some fuel to continue to push the Slow Momentum indicator higher.
The movement by the market remains very broad based. The only areas that are lagging are the "defensive" areas of precious metals, bonds and healthcare/pharma.
Wants some trading ideas? Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box, which got off to a nice start to the new week.
We saw very nice consolidation today and a nice rally into the close. Now we are hitting another short term over bought spot on the Fast Momentum indicator. You can see on the chart how its topping out. That is good. It means that it needs to head back down to regain some fuel to continue to push the Slow Momentum indicator higher.
The movement by the market remains very broad based. The only areas that are lagging are the "defensive" areas of precious metals, bonds and healthcare/pharma.
Wants some trading ideas? Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box, which got off to a nice start to the new week.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
TradeWinds for April 18th
We finished out a strong week on a strong note. All of our momentum indicators are very solid right now, but there is some concern that we are short term overbought again or close to it. But thats okay, that just means there will be another buying-opportunity-dip coming up soon.
DIA and QQQQ ripped through their resistance lines on Friday, SPY cam close. Now we need to see if they can hold above those resistance lines to make them support lines.
Its been funny to read articles this week once again debating whether we have put in a the market low, as though that really matters. The reality is the market is always going to go up and its always going to go down. The key is to find out how to tell when the market is most likely to go in one direction for a period of time that you can invest in. We think our momentum indicators give you real good short term (3-5 day) indications of the buying or selling strength that moves the markets. Let me add my two cents to the bottom debate. Obviously the most recent low was set back mid-March. From a momentum perspective the low was set in at the mid-January low. While the market continued down in price from for two more months, our momentum started rising, creating a divergence which told us when the price move up started we could be confident that it would be sustained. Go back and read our posts from mid-March on to see how we reported this unfolding rally.
In summary we are in sustained rally mode until proven otherwise. Its a broad-based move with only healthcare and pharma stocks lagging. Precious metal are also a little weak, but bear some watching to see if they come back to life.
Now check out our Top 25 Lists and the TradeWinds Black Box results.
DIA and QQQQ ripped through their resistance lines on Friday, SPY cam close. Now we need to see if they can hold above those resistance lines to make them support lines.
Its been funny to read articles this week once again debating whether we have put in a the market low, as though that really matters. The reality is the market is always going to go up and its always going to go down. The key is to find out how to tell when the market is most likely to go in one direction for a period of time that you can invest in. We think our momentum indicators give you real good short term (3-5 day) indications of the buying or selling strength that moves the markets. Let me add my two cents to the bottom debate. Obviously the most recent low was set back mid-March. From a momentum perspective the low was set in at the mid-January low. While the market continued down in price from for two more months, our momentum started rising, creating a divergence which told us when the price move up started we could be confident that it would be sustained. Go back and read our posts from mid-March on to see how we reported this unfolding rally.
In summary we are in sustained rally mode until proven otherwise. Its a broad-based move with only healthcare and pharma stocks lagging. Precious metal are also a little weak, but bear some watching to see if they come back to life.
Now check out our Top 25 Lists and the TradeWinds Black Box results.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
TradeWinds for April 17th
After yesterday's big move it was not surprise to see a ho-hum day as the market consolidated its gains. If you are following our advice to buy the dips, well today was the a day to take a dip.
All of our momentum indicators remained strong. With our moderate and fast momentum moving nicely off their dip to push the slow momentum even further into the positive TradeWind zone. Of the 40 ETFs and indexes which comprises our momentum charts only two are in negative TradeWinds - healthcare and pharma - XLV & PPH.
For the time being we should continue to see strength in the market. However, don't get carried away. Remember it is earning season and any one company can take some wild turns. And the good old credit crisis does loom in the background, so that can bite on any day. The momentum indicators are telling us that even if there is a hit the market should be able to absorb it and keep on moving up for now.
Now check out our Top 25 Lists for more trading ideas and latest TradeWinds Black Box results.
All of our momentum indicators remained strong. With our moderate and fast momentum moving nicely off their dip to push the slow momentum even further into the positive TradeWind zone. Of the 40 ETFs and indexes which comprises our momentum charts only two are in negative TradeWinds - healthcare and pharma - XLV & PPH.
For the time being we should continue to see strength in the market. However, don't get carried away. Remember it is earning season and any one company can take some wild turns. And the good old credit crisis does loom in the background, so that can bite on any day. The momentum indicators are telling us that even if there is a hit the market should be able to absorb it and keep on moving up for now.
Now check out our Top 25 Lists for more trading ideas and latest TradeWinds Black Box results.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
TradeWinds for April 16th
I hope some of you took advantage of our call yesterday to buy the dip and made a little money today. I will say it again, this market has positive TradeWinds at its back, and rising, putting us solidly in a buy the dips mode. Watch our Moderate and Fast momentum indicators to tell you when the dip is coming and ending. When you are ready to buy go to our Top 25 long list and buy ETFs or stocks that are new to the list and have a positive (green) or neutral (white) rating. Do your own research to pick the ones that look best for you from that group. Pretty simple.
This rally should last for several days, although don't be surprised to see a little pullback from the big move today, even with Big Blue, IBM reporting nice earnings after hours. This market will now take another shot at taking out it next major resistance markers. For the SPY thats around 139, closed at 136.85; for DIA its around 127.5, closed at 126.64; for QQQQ its around 46, closed today at 45.37. Remember that resistance really comes in a range rather than a fixed number. We need to a move through these numbers and then a hold above before you can say its broken. If its does do that, these indexes could then be in for some major sailing with strong TradeWinds. The way things are setting up, I think it will happen. Stay tuned.
This rally should last for several days, although don't be surprised to see a little pullback from the big move today, even with Big Blue, IBM reporting nice earnings after hours. This market will now take another shot at taking out it next major resistance markers. For the SPY thats around 139, closed at 136.85; for DIA its around 127.5, closed at 126.64; for QQQQ its around 46, closed today at 45.37. Remember that resistance really comes in a range rather than a fixed number. We need to a move through these numbers and then a hold above before you can say its broken. If its does do that, these indexes could then be in for some major sailing with strong TradeWinds. The way things are setting up, I think it will happen. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
TradeWinds for April 15th
Ok, boys and girls its time to do the Buy-the-Dip dance. Tuesday's action gave us the bounce in our fast momentum indicator that we were looking for. This come along just as our all important slow momentum indicator was drifting downward, but still being pushed along in positive TradeWind territory. With our fast momentum indicator reload and ready to push high, we now will watch for the moderate momentum indicator to reach its bottom and turn higher gives a dual thrust to push us even further into the positive zone.
Now tomorrow you are going to read a lot about Intel's earning that came in after hours as being the catalyst for the market jump. Not so, say I. The momentum was positive all along and short term we had reached oversold, we were primed for a bounce. You might ask, if Intel had reported disappointing earning would that have broken my model. I answer, not necessarily. How many times have you seen a headline company report good or poorly and you think the market will follow that and it doesn't. Then you read all the reporters talking about how the market ignored this or that news. My answer to all of that is that the momentum indicators were set to go one way or the other. Good or bad news only juices the move. The GE news last Friday was a case in point, we were in consolidating mode, working over the overbought momentum, that news just made for a one day sharper move. Then the market caught itself and now the long side is going to reassert its momentum.
Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box for ideas on what to buy on this dip.
Now tomorrow you are going to read a lot about Intel's earning that came in after hours as being the catalyst for the market jump. Not so, say I. The momentum was positive all along and short term we had reached oversold, we were primed for a bounce. You might ask, if Intel had reported disappointing earning would that have broken my model. I answer, not necessarily. How many times have you seen a headline company report good or poorly and you think the market will follow that and it doesn't. Then you read all the reporters talking about how the market ignored this or that news. My answer to all of that is that the momentum indicators were set to go one way or the other. Good or bad news only juices the move. The GE news last Friday was a case in point, we were in consolidating mode, working over the overbought momentum, that news just made for a one day sharper move. Then the market caught itself and now the long side is going to reassert its momentum.
Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box for ideas on what to buy on this dip.
TradeWinds for April 14th
I am a little late making my daily updates as last night was spent working on completing those pesky tax returns.
While taxes are depressing enough, the market is giving very little joy itself. The good news is that there was no big downside follow up to Friday's GE inspired drop in the market. Our fast and moderate momentum indicators as moving well into oversold territory, while our slow momentum indicator remains in the positive TradeWinds territory. Of the forty ETF/Indexes that we track, 36 are either positive or neutral in their moderate momentum rating which is based on the Fisher Transform. Our fundamental long side momentum has not been broken, but we do need to see a snap back in our fast momentum in the next day our so, or we will see some real deteriation of the upside move. Since I read the short term to be oversold, I expect to see that.
Go to our website to check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box results.
While taxes are depressing enough, the market is giving very little joy itself. The good news is that there was no big downside follow up to Friday's GE inspired drop in the market. Our fast and moderate momentum indicators as moving well into oversold territory, while our slow momentum indicator remains in the positive TradeWinds territory. Of the forty ETF/Indexes that we track, 36 are either positive or neutral in their moderate momentum rating which is based on the Fisher Transform. Our fundamental long side momentum has not been broken, but we do need to see a snap back in our fast momentum in the next day our so, or we will see some real deteriation of the upside move. Since I read the short term to be oversold, I expect to see that.
Go to our website to check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box results.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
TradeWinds for April 11th
Friday was not the kind of day we like to see when we are building a long side argument. The thing that worries me the most about Friday's action is that there was not real effort at a bounce after the morning hit from the GE news. Sometimes one day and one news story can change the whole psychology of the market, time will tell if that is the case here.
On the plus side, out slow momentum indicator remains solidly in the positive TradeWinds zone. We dipped a little but not severely. Fast is definitely oversold now and ready for a bounce and moderate momentum is close to being oversold. Looking at our ETFs and indexes, only one (OEX) slipped from positive momentum to neutral, and we still only have five in the negative zone. We still have good TradeWinds in our favor, but reason to be cautious. Lets see what the new week brings.
Check out our Top 25 Lists and Black Box results for the weeks.
On the plus side, out slow momentum indicator remains solidly in the positive TradeWinds zone. We dipped a little but not severely. Fast is definitely oversold now and ready for a bounce and moderate momentum is close to being oversold. Looking at our ETFs and indexes, only one (OEX) slipped from positive momentum to neutral, and we still only have five in the negative zone. We still have good TradeWinds in our favor, but reason to be cautious. Lets see what the new week brings.
Check out our Top 25 Lists and Black Box results for the weeks.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
TradeWinds for April 10th
Okay, so this week we have had two days where we had nice moves to the upside only to fade and we had two days with sizable moves to the downside which largely recovered. Thats sure feels like consolidation, and a little indecision as we move through earnings season.
Our momentum indicators are behaving quite nicely if you like the long side. Our all important slow momentum indicator has held up nicely this week and even ticked up today after flattening yesterday. Meanwhile Our fast momentum indicator looks like it has refueled and is ready to move back up while the moderate momentum indicator is drifting down for refueling. A nice snap back by the fast momentum indicator would launch a new leg up. Lets see what happens in the next couple of trading days.
29 of our 40 indexes/ETFs that we track are in positive TradeWinds territory. Only five remain in negative momentum territory.
Now check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWind Black Box results for today.
Our momentum indicators are behaving quite nicely if you like the long side. Our all important slow momentum indicator has held up nicely this week and even ticked up today after flattening yesterday. Meanwhile Our fast momentum indicator looks like it has refueled and is ready to move back up while the moderate momentum indicator is drifting down for refueling. A nice snap back by the fast momentum indicator would launch a new leg up. Lets see what happens in the next couple of trading days.
29 of our 40 indexes/ETFs that we track are in positive TradeWinds territory. Only five remain in negative momentum territory.
Now check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWind Black Box results for today.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
TradeWinds for Tuesday April 8th
Consolidation and resistance are today's key words.
The market is doing a nice job of consolidating its recent gains as it awaits the soon to be flood of earnings. In so doing its working off it over bought condition as evidenced by the down turn in our moderate and fast momentum indicators which had both got a bit hot. Our slow momentum indicators is sailing nicely in smooth waters with TradeWinds at its back.
This time out is coming just as we hit major resistance points for the major indexes. Look at a chart of the Dow or S&P 500 (I don't have time to publish one tonight). You can easily see that we have risen to the level which served as support for the last run-up to record high last summer which was tested in August and November before being broken in December. Its been tested as resistance a couple of times since and now we need to break through that to continue our next major leg up. To do so our momentum indicators need to reload and then make another assault. Barring major surprises in earnings in the next week or so, which make a good run at breaking that resistance. As I said yesterday, I don't think we would be in positive TradeWinds territory today if the big money thought that this earnings season would be a killer.
We had three more sectors sail into positive TradeWinds territory today - Utilities (XLU), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Brazil (EWZ).
Now check out our Top 25 Lists for today and our TradeWinds Black Box results.
The market is doing a nice job of consolidating its recent gains as it awaits the soon to be flood of earnings. In so doing its working off it over bought condition as evidenced by the down turn in our moderate and fast momentum indicators which had both got a bit hot. Our slow momentum indicators is sailing nicely in smooth waters with TradeWinds at its back.
This time out is coming just as we hit major resistance points for the major indexes. Look at a chart of the Dow or S&P 500 (I don't have time to publish one tonight). You can easily see that we have risen to the level which served as support for the last run-up to record high last summer which was tested in August and November before being broken in December. Its been tested as resistance a couple of times since and now we need to break through that to continue our next major leg up. To do so our momentum indicators need to reload and then make another assault. Barring major surprises in earnings in the next week or so, which make a good run at breaking that resistance. As I said yesterday, I don't think we would be in positive TradeWinds territory today if the big money thought that this earnings season would be a killer.
We had three more sectors sail into positive TradeWinds territory today - Utilities (XLU), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Brazil (EWZ).
Now check out our Top 25 Lists for today and our TradeWinds Black Box results.
Monday, April 7, 2008
TradeWinds for Monday April 7th
If you read our weekend blog update, you would not have been surprised by the fizzled rally today. We said then that there was probably more consolidation to take place due to the high reading of our fast momentum indicator. Today we got that consolidation and our fast momentum indicator took a dip down on its way to reloading.
The good thing is that while the session did wipe out a 100 point Dow gain, it was a fairly tame session and ended basically flat for the day. Our slow and moderate term momentum indicators just kept on trucking. We are solidly in positive TradeWinds territory across nearly all sectors.
We are now entering into earnings season when some very volatile moves can take place particularly in individual stocks. Our TradeWinds momentum indicators tell us that we are in good shape going into the reporting period. The surging prices tells me that the money that moves the market is not afraid of the earnings that are about to be reported. Because of the increased volatility of the reporting period, this should be a great time to be buying the dips.
Today we say the energy sector (XLE) and consumer discretionary (XLY) enter into the positive TradeWinds zone. Right now we have only five sector in the negative column - SLV, PPH, GDX, GLD and XLV. Those sectors were up over 1 percent on average today - so once again this is a broad based move by the markets.
Check out our TradeWinds Top 25 lists and Black Box results here.
The good thing is that while the session did wipe out a 100 point Dow gain, it was a fairly tame session and ended basically flat for the day. Our slow and moderate term momentum indicators just kept on trucking. We are solidly in positive TradeWinds territory across nearly all sectors.
We are now entering into earnings season when some very volatile moves can take place particularly in individual stocks. Our TradeWinds momentum indicators tell us that we are in good shape going into the reporting period. The surging prices tells me that the money that moves the market is not afraid of the earnings that are about to be reported. Because of the increased volatility of the reporting period, this should be a great time to be buying the dips.
Today we say the energy sector (XLE) and consumer discretionary (XLY) enter into the positive TradeWinds zone. Right now we have only five sector in the negative column - SLV, PPH, GDX, GLD and XLV. Those sectors were up over 1 percent on average today - so once again this is a broad based move by the markets.
Check out our TradeWinds Top 25 lists and Black Box results here.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
TradeWinds for Friday April 4th
In the event anyone noticed, I apologize for missing the update on Thursday night. I took a brief vacation down to Myrtle Beach with the family.
The markets were did some nice consolidation on Thursday and Friday which solidified our long side momentum. Our slow momentum indicator has now surged above plus five putting us into positive TradeWinds territory. Only five of our 40 indexes and ETFs are in negative territory (SLV, GDX, GLD, PPH, XLV), confirming a broad based rise in the market. What this rise means to your trading is that it is now time to buy dips and let your winners run.
In the near term, I think we will continue to consolidate and even see a little down side. Our fast momentum indicator flattened out indicating it needs to go refuel. Our moderate momentum indicator is getting a little frothy, so be cautious over the next couple of days.
Friday we saw five indexes/ETFs move into positive territory - XLB, COMPX, MDY, SPY, OEX. This puts all major indexes into the positive TradeWind sailing. I saw a headline that said the Nasdaq had its best week since 2006 - that doesn't surprise the readers here, because we called the Techs back in play exactly two weeks ago.
Now check out our Top 25 lists and the past week's Black Box results.
The markets were did some nice consolidation on Thursday and Friday which solidified our long side momentum. Our slow momentum indicator has now surged above plus five putting us into positive TradeWinds territory. Only five of our 40 indexes and ETFs are in negative territory (SLV, GDX, GLD, PPH, XLV), confirming a broad based rise in the market. What this rise means to your trading is that it is now time to buy dips and let your winners run.
In the near term, I think we will continue to consolidate and even see a little down side. Our fast momentum indicator flattened out indicating it needs to go refuel. Our moderate momentum indicator is getting a little frothy, so be cautious over the next couple of days.
Friday we saw five indexes/ETFs move into positive territory - XLB, COMPX, MDY, SPY, OEX. This puts all major indexes into the positive TradeWind sailing. I saw a headline that said the Nasdaq had its best week since 2006 - that doesn't surprise the readers here, because we called the Techs back in play exactly two weeks ago.
Now check out our Top 25 lists and the past week's Black Box results.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
TradeWinds for Wednesday April 2nd
A very mild down day is just what we like to see after a rip roaring day. Those big swings from day to day are being replaced by surge and hold moves to the long side.
Our all important slow momentum indicator is just rocketing right now. It will be in positive TradeWinds in another day or two barring something crazy happening. Our other momentum indicators are fueling the surge upwards. The fast momentum will probably have to refuel here in a day or so, which means we can expect some consolidation before the next leg up.
We had three sectors/indexes sail into positive TradeWinds today - Big Cap techs (QQQQ), Europe/Far East/Australia (EFA), and Oil Services (OIH). Three also moved from negative to neutral TradeWinds - Utilities (XLU), Network (IGN), and Brazil (EWZ).
Now check out our Top 25 Lists and exciting TradeWinds Black Box results.
Our all important slow momentum indicator is just rocketing right now. It will be in positive TradeWinds in another day or two barring something crazy happening. Our other momentum indicators are fueling the surge upwards. The fast momentum will probably have to refuel here in a day or so, which means we can expect some consolidation before the next leg up.
We had three sectors/indexes sail into positive TradeWinds today - Big Cap techs (QQQQ), Europe/Far East/Australia (EFA), and Oil Services (OIH). Three also moved from negative to neutral TradeWinds - Utilities (XLU), Network (IGN), and Brazil (EWZ).
Now check out our Top 25 Lists and exciting TradeWinds Black Box results.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
TradeWinds for Tuesday April 1
Today's market action was no April Fools joke. We are in for the real deal of a long side moving market. I am not calling it bear or bull, all I know is its heading up as a trend.
Now if anyone doubts that we don't know what we are talking about here, read yesterday's post. No one could predict the strength of the move today, but all our signs said that the last few days were just refueling for the next leg up, and today was blast off. I don't have many readers of this blog, so I urge those of you who do check in from time to time to share the love with family and friends that you have found a no nonsense blog that will give you an honest read of market action.
Overall, where do we stand? Our slow momentum indicator is still in the neutral zone but made a sharp move today which tells me are ready to sail out of the neutral winds into the positive TradeWind zone before too long. For the first time in a long time, the slow momentum indicator of just the indexes (which I don't publish right now), is actually out performing the average of the collected ETFs and indexes - a very positive sign. Of the 85 equities we track, 59 are neutral or positive - 69%.
Our sectors with the most positive TradeWinds at their back include, consumer staples (XLP), biotechs (BBH), transportation (IYT), real estate (XHB, IYR), industrials (XLI) and retail (RTH). And by tomorrow you will see the big cap techs joining this group. Now that group does not sound like investors getting ready for a recession or some other financial armagedon that you read about in the mainstream media and blogs. Don't be fooled, now is the time to be buying.
Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box here.
Now if anyone doubts that we don't know what we are talking about here, read yesterday's post. No one could predict the strength of the move today, but all our signs said that the last few days were just refueling for the next leg up, and today was blast off. I don't have many readers of this blog, so I urge those of you who do check in from time to time to share the love with family and friends that you have found a no nonsense blog that will give you an honest read of market action.
Overall, where do we stand? Our slow momentum indicator is still in the neutral zone but made a sharp move today which tells me are ready to sail out of the neutral winds into the positive TradeWind zone before too long. For the first time in a long time, the slow momentum indicator of just the indexes (which I don't publish right now), is actually out performing the average of the collected ETFs and indexes - a very positive sign. Of the 85 equities we track, 59 are neutral or positive - 69%.
Our sectors with the most positive TradeWinds at their back include, consumer staples (XLP), biotechs (BBH), transportation (IYT), real estate (XHB, IYR), industrials (XLI) and retail (RTH). And by tomorrow you will see the big cap techs joining this group. Now that group does not sound like investors getting ready for a recession or some other financial armagedon that you read about in the mainstream media and blogs. Don't be fooled, now is the time to be buying.
Check out our Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box here.
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