TradeWinds for April 29th

I'm back after a day off from blogging. This blogging business is tough. For those that have not tried it, you would be surprised how tough it is. I would love to hear from any you reading this blog of what you like or what you would like to see more of less of. Feel free to jump and give me some feedback.

Lets see what Miss Market is up to. Its no surprise that the week has been kinda of boring as we come up to the FED MEETING (cue the scary music). You can be sure that about 2:15 tomorrow afternoon the market will go nuts. It will swing down and then up or up and then down. It really won't be until the next couple of days that we really know how she feels about the Fed's decision tomorrow.

Conventional wisdom is that the Fed with cut 25 basis points tomorrow. The debate is whether they signal they are done cutting or not. I haven't clue of macro economics yada yada, I can only look at my momentum numbers as my tea leaves and try and find some meaning in them. And true to a good market forecaster, I am going to tell you the picture is mixed. Our moderate momentum indicator is still a touch overbought. Our fast momentum has shed its over bought excess and our slow momentum is cruising in nice strong positive TradeWinds. A mixed picture indeed.

Looking at sectors, we have said for sometime that there is a massive rotation out of commodities and signs of a strengthening dollar. This suggests that rate cutting is at an end. So here is my best guess at what happens tomorrow and the next couple of days. Fed either buts .25 or even surprises by not cutting. If it cuts it says it will now pause. The market will either tank immediately of wait a day, but this down move is to bleed off the over bought state on the moderate momentum. The down move is short lived and then there is sustained move back up due to a way over sold short term momentum indicator and the fact that Miss Market is sailing in positive TradeWinds to begin with. Bottom line, I don't know exactly the scenario for tomorrow, but in the next few days we will be sailing in calm blue seas again.

Now check out our TradeWinds Top 25 lists and TradeWinds Black Box results for today.