I am getting more confident about two things. One, we have seen the top for oil. I mentioned some time ago that there has been a divergence between the oil (USO) momentum indicators meaning the price kept making new highs while the momentum indicators were not making new highs. This has actually been going one since about mid-April. I suspect this has gone on longer that it should because of the psychology of oil, but now I think the chickens have come home to roost and its time for a major correction.
Along with a top in oil, I am seeing more evidence of a bottom for the market in general. Certainly a top in oil would probably coincide with a market bottom, but also I think the financial sector has been way oversold and the tech sector is reasonably healthy (see yesterday's results from Intel).
Still nothing to get overly excited about except that the pain is going to ease up. On any given day, however, some geopolitical or economic bombshell could whack the markets, but I think we will start to see a stabilizing of the downward trend setting the stage for an upturn of some degree.
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